Short at 410?

  1. I do agree with someone else here saying that shorting now is too fast too rushed. Personally, I prefer to wait for it to touch and fail resistance, and the dip must be backed with high volume, then I will short it. Takes maybe 2 more weeks

  2. Positive GEX, and a lot of call OI at 400. But still on a bounce move, I would either scale in for longer expiration, or wait.

  3. Needs to be a catalyst to bring it down. As of now the FOMC minutes are an upward catalyst. China covid outbreak could be negative, who knows? I agree it will turn at some point soon, though.

  4. I think China will affect the heavy weights in SP500. Apple, Tesla, NVDA, etc can’t keep up their value under those tense Chinese conditions. Production and Supply issues will persist. Then here comes the potential railroad strike no one is talking about.

  5. Everyone in the world is looking at that level. The countertrend rally looks to be getting tired and there is a lot of resistance around there. Seems like a great spot for a reversal.

  6. In agreement about this technical level. I also think that with the huge rise in 0dte options the algos are going to cause havoc to shake everyone out before the actual move up or down. Everyone is waiting for that major move and I wouldn’t be surprised if we just trade sideways for a bit, even after the next reports on cpi and the fed rate.

  7. They know everyone looking to short at around $410 because of the trend line, so they gonna pump the market.

  8. Its hitting the 200 MA on the daily. That's a big institutional indicator. Unless it penetrates and bounces I think we are headed back down.

  9. I don't trust it after 3 tests of of the trend line. They break more often than not on the 4th. I'd be more inclined to look for a break out of the trend line and pull back and bounce and buy in the direction of the market.

  10. I have the same plan. I'll take some profits when it hits the line, which could be 4100 or 4080. Then buy back in on the retest of support.

  11. Short the hourly lower high off whatever resis you mark. This way you will not be early and you'll likely get to 1:1 and can take half off and see if you're right risk free

  12. We are also approaching a 200 day ema which has been a huge resistance. I expect that we don’t break through they point on the first attempt. However if we later have a lower CPI then I wouldn’t be surprised if we rally into year end.

  13. 410-420 is where I am entering. It's impossible in my opinion for 2023 earnings to remain where they are. Even the fomc minutes yesterday cast a very grim picture of unemployment until 2025.

  14. It's really not that SPY has rallied, the dollar has just fallen a lot based on the Fed's pivot. Unless you expect the dollar to rally back, there's no point shorting SPY

  15. Im scaling into a short personally. Expecting a slow decline to 250 with a bumpy ride on the horizon.

  16. Nothing wrong with scouting short swings in this year's downtrend, but maybe wait for the market to show it's hand a bit and give some indication that the bounce is topping out. Depends on your style I guess but I'd rather see enough pullback to anticipate a daily lower high and go from there.

  17. Look at Treasury yields and the dollar. That's what the market has been following. If yields keep going lower like they have been the market will keep going up.

  18. Educate yourself and make the decision because you think it’s a good idea not because someone validated it for you.

  19. It kind of scares me that everyone has this line drawn on their charts 😂😂😂 what if Wall St pumps tf outta it knowing everyone will short?

  20. it's not a day trade though, this is a swinger dinger, if you wanna make good bread out of this. I don't do swings very much but I like the concept of this play, if not the exact same numbers...

  21. I would not bet against such a strong uptrend. If it starts going back down, you could enter on a retest or a pullback on lower time frames. However, there will likely be a short term opportunity to fade at the resistance, but I wouldn't take the trade raw at 410. I would wait for some kind of PA confirmation before.

  22. Well, not anymore. The MM’s have now read this and are onto us so, no telling where it will pivot.

  23. I think we run to at least 420 in the next two weeks. We are standing at the 200dma rn. We haven’t made it across all year. Decent bullish signal once we do. Then $420. Cpi and rates 13/14. Volume at these levels is in decline. Price is getting squeezed into a wedge. I don’t think we make it further than 420ish

  24. I too am going to do this, but I think you’re going to see a little push higher/flat for the next few weeks. As 2023 comes though I think it’ll be right back to the volatility. I’m not buying for a couple weeks and will buy 60-90 days out for expiration

  25. Fed Minutes allege “smaller” rate hikes to come and headline news that Bank of Korea is opting for “smaller” rate hikes could be a bullish catalyst in the short term. Perhaps until the next FOMC rate hike next month.

  26. Don't be a hero. If the trend line breaks everyone could- COULD pile in long. I agree with your take and believe we go down soon. But I'm not going to jump in front of a moving train til I see some evidence it's turning.

  27. My plan also. Could bounce a bit higher there though. It will be a very volatile couple of days in that range hitting stops but once downside is confirmed big sellers will come in.

  28. what if it does not even go to 200 ma and start reversing from here on while everyone is thinking it will touch that level

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