I do agree with someone else here saying that shorting now is too fast too rushed. Personally, I prefer to wait for it to touch and fail resistance, and the dip must be backed with high volume, then I will short it. Takes maybe 2 more weeks
Needs to be a catalyst to bring it down. As of now the FOMC minutes are an upward catalyst. China covid outbreak could be negative, who knows? I agree it will turn at some point soon, though.
I think China will affect the heavy weights in SP500. Apple, Tesla, NVDA, etc can’t keep up their value under those tense Chinese conditions. Production and Supply issues will persist. Then here comes the potential railroad strike no one is talking about.
Everyone in the world is looking at that level. The countertrend rally looks to be getting tired and there is a lot of resistance around there. Seems like a great spot for a reversal.
In agreement about this technical level. I also think that with the huge rise in 0dte options the algos are going to cause havoc to shake everyone out before the actual move up or down. Everyone is waiting for that major move and I wouldn’t be surprised if we just trade sideways for a bit, even after the next reports on cpi and the fed rate.
I don't trust it after 3 tests of of the trend line. They break more often than not on the 4th. I'd be more inclined to look for a break out of the trend line and pull back and bounce and buy in the direction of the market.
Short the hourly lower high off whatever resis you mark. This way you will not be early and you'll likely get to 1:1 and can take half off and see if you're right risk free
We are also approaching a 200 day ema which has been a huge resistance. I expect that we don’t break through they point on the first attempt. However if we later have a lower CPI then I wouldn’t be surprised if we rally into year end.
410-420 is where I am entering. It's impossible in my opinion for 2023 earnings to remain where they are. Even the fomc minutes yesterday cast a very grim picture of unemployment until 2025.
It's really not that SPY has rallied, the dollar has just fallen a lot based on the Fed's pivot. Unless you expect the dollar to rally back, there's no point shorting SPY
Nothing wrong with scouting short swings in this year's downtrend, but maybe wait for the market to show it's hand a bit and give some indication that the bounce is topping out. Depends on your style I guess but I'd rather see enough pullback to anticipate a daily lower high and go from there.
Look at Treasury yields and the dollar. That's what the market has been following. If yields keep going lower like they have been the market will keep going up.
it's not a day trade though, this is a swinger dinger, if you wanna make good bread out of this. I don't do swings very much but I like the concept of this play, if not the exact same numbers...
I would not bet against such a strong uptrend. If it starts going back down, you could enter on a retest or a pullback on lower time frames. However, there will likely be a short term opportunity to fade at the resistance, but I wouldn't take the trade raw at 410. I would wait for some kind of PA confirmation before.
I think we run to at least 420 in the next two weeks. We are standing at the 200dma rn. We haven’t made it across all year. Decent bullish signal once we do. Then $420. Cpi and rates 13/14. Volume at these levels is in decline. Price is getting squeezed into a wedge. I don’t think we make it further than 420ish
I too am going to do this, but I think you’re going to see a little push higher/flat for the next few weeks. As 2023 comes though I think it’ll be right back to the volatility. I’m not buying for a couple weeks and will buy 60-90 days out for expiration
Fed Minutes allege “smaller” rate hikes to come and headline news that Bank of Korea is opting for “smaller” rate hikes could be a bullish catalyst in the short term. Perhaps until the next FOMC rate hike next month.
Don't be a hero. If the trend line breaks everyone could- COULD pile in long. I agree with your take and believe we go down soon. But I'm not going to jump in front of a moving train til I see some evidence it's turning.
My plan also. Could bounce a bit higher there though. It will be a very volatile couple of days in that range hitting stops but once downside is confirmed big sellers will come in.
Gotta say that everyone here did a great job at keeping our conversations very educational. Love it!
I do agree with someone else here saying that shorting now is too fast too rushed. Personally, I prefer to wait for it to touch and fail resistance, and the dip must be backed with high volume, then I will short it. Takes maybe 2 more weeks
Very fair point. Thanks for your comment!
Reasonable take. Upvote
Positive GEX, and a lot of call OI at 400. But still on a bounce move, I would either scale in for longer expiration, or wait.
Not familiar with GEX, could you please elaborate?
Needs to be a catalyst to bring it down. As of now the FOMC minutes are an upward catalyst. China covid outbreak could be negative, who knows? I agree it will turn at some point soon, though.
I think China will affect the heavy weights in SP500. Apple, Tesla, NVDA, etc can’t keep up their value under those tense Chinese conditions. Production and Supply issues will persist. Then here comes the potential railroad strike no one is talking about.
Everyone in the world is looking at that level. The countertrend rally looks to be getting tired and there is a lot of resistance around there. Seems like a great spot for a reversal.
There are catalyst all over this market; take your pick.
In agreement about this technical level. I also think that with the huge rise in 0dte options the algos are going to cause havoc to shake everyone out before the actual move up or down. Everyone is waiting for that major move and I wouldn’t be surprised if we just trade sideways for a bit, even after the next reports on cpi and the fed rate.
Be careful with assumptions like “the underlying macroeconomics don’t support this move”.
They know everyone looking to short at around $410 because of the trend line, so they gonna pump the market.
Markets love to prove the obvious wrong. It goes higher on short coverings.
Its hitting the 200 MA on the daily. That's a big institutional indicator. Unless it penetrates and bounces I think we are headed back down.
I don't trust it after 3 tests of of the trend line. They break more often than not on the 4th. I'd be more inclined to look for a break out of the trend line and pull back and bounce and buy in the direction of the market.
I have the same plan. I'll take some profits when it hits the line, which could be 4100 or 4080. Then buy back in on the retest of support.
Short the hourly lower high off whatever resis you mark. This way you will not be early and you'll likely get to 1:1 and can take half off and see if you're right risk free
Fairly low volume over the last few days. I would expect it to drop come Monday when institutions are back from vacation.
I'd say a short at 410 and stop at 425 is too wide of a stop. You'll short at 410, get covered at 425, then it will start going down.
Buying long dated 350p when it reaches 410+ is a better option no? Coz thats what I am planning to do.
414
We are also approaching a 200 day ema which has been a huge resistance. I expect that we don’t break through they point on the first attempt. However if we later have a lower CPI then I wouldn’t be surprised if we rally into year end.
Didn't we close right over the 200 or is Webull playing with me?
410-420 is where I am entering. It's impossible in my opinion for 2023 earnings to remain where they are. Even the fomc minutes yesterday cast a very grim picture of unemployment until 2025.
It's really not that SPY has rallied, the dollar has just fallen a lot based on the Fed's pivot. Unless you expect the dollar to rally back, there's no point shorting SPY
Atm there is no uncertainty anymore what fed will do barring last minute reversal fed prettyy much gave away their game plan.
Im scaling into a short personally. Expecting a slow decline to 250 with a bumpy ride on the horizon.
Nothing wrong with scouting short swings in this year's downtrend, but maybe wait for the market to show it's hand a bit and give some indication that the bounce is topping out. Depends on your style I guess but I'd rather see enough pullback to anticipate a daily lower high and go from there.
I’d wait and see if it can break the long trend line first. That might be 410, but it also might be 405.
$spy been rejected at the 200 EMA and upper trend line from the current bear flag.
Look at Treasury yields and the dollar. That's what the market has been following. If yields keep going lower like they have been the market will keep going up.
Educate yourself and make the decision because you think it’s a good idea not because someone validated it for you.
It kind of scares me that everyone has this line drawn on their charts 😂😂😂 what if Wall St pumps tf outta it knowing everyone will short?
Short at 411 for weekly consolidation.
406 on Monday at least if bulls push more 409
it's not a day trade though, this is a swinger dinger, if you wanna make good bread out of this. I don't do swings very much but I like the concept of this play, if not the exact same numbers...
I would not bet against such a strong uptrend. If it starts going back down, you could enter on a retest or a pullback on lower time frames. However, there will likely be a short term opportunity to fade at the resistance, but I wouldn't take the trade raw at 410. I would wait for some kind of PA confirmation before.
Probably better to wait for the downside break. We know it's coming, just need patience.
Well, not anymore. The MM’s have now read this and are onto us so, no telling where it will pivot.
I think we'll see an end of year rally before recession really kicks off Q1 of 2023.
You short when the market shows you it's selling.
CPI gap up moving to 450
I think we run to at least 420 in the next two weeks. We are standing at the 200dma rn. We haven’t made it across all year. Decent bullish signal once we do. Then $420. Cpi and rates 13/14. Volume at these levels is in decline. Price is getting squeezed into a wedge. I don’t think we make it further than 420ish
I too am going to do this, but I think you’re going to see a little push higher/flat for the next few weeks. As 2023 comes though I think it’ll be right back to the volatility. I’m not buying for a couple weeks and will buy 60-90 days out for expiration
Fed Minutes allege “smaller” rate hikes to come and headline news that Bank of Korea is opting for “smaller” rate hikes could be a bullish catalyst in the short term. Perhaps until the next FOMC rate hike next month.
410 is where I’m shorting again. 50w SMA will match the the downtrend line by the time we hit it.
Don't be a hero. If the trend line breaks everyone could- COULD pile in long. I agree with your take and believe we go down soon. But I'm not going to jump in front of a moving train til I see some evidence it's turning.
My plan also. Could bounce a bit higher there though. It will be a very volatile couple of days in that range hitting stops but once downside is confirmed big sellers will come in.
what if it does not even go to 200 ma and start reversing from here on while everyone is thinking it will touch that level
The Santa Claus rally is here?